The Data Science Blog

Blog of Gary Short

Claims, Explanations and Inferences, Oh My!

Last time, we spoke about how critical thinking was an aspect of data science that was often over looked. In this post, we’re going to examine some of the fundamental building blocks of critical thinking: claims, explanations and inferences.

Claims
Firstly, claims. Claims are really just assertions:

  • The crime rate has fallen this year.
  • Unemployment is up.
  • Major corporations aren’t paying enough tax.

And they come in four main flavours:

  1. Evidence based claims. These are claims that are stated as facts that can be checked by someone. Crime fell by 8% last year.
  2. Prediction base claims, which are claims that state something will happen in the future. The UK is condemned to a decade of washed out summers.
  3. Recommendation based claims, which are those that make recommendations. We should drink 1.2 litres of water per day.
  4. Principle base claims, are those that express an opinion on what ought (or not) to be done. Major corporations should pay more tax.

So what should we do when we come across these claims in our work as data scientists? Well as critical thinkers, we should always question them, asking ourselves questions like, “is this claim reasonable?”, “Is it significant?” and “What else do I need to know to make a judgement regarding this claim?”.

Explanations
Explanations are the things that sit between the claim and the inference. We want to get to the inference because that’s the thing that contains the action point or the conclusion to the argument, but without one or more explanations we can’t get there. Often the explanation sentence will start with “because…” or “due to…”, for example: the UK is condemned to a decade of washed out summers, due to global warming.

They often come in the form of a claim, as in this case. There are implied claims in this explanation, namely: global warming exists, global warming causes weather change and that the UK is affected by this weather change. The same questions asked of claims should be asked of these kinds of explanations too, and you should follow the claim –> explanation “rabbit hole” until it “bottoms out”, or until you satisfy yourself that the explanation is right or wrong.

Explanations can come in the form of single explanations, multiple independent explanations and joint explanations. We’ve covered single explanations; multiple independent explanations are just where more than one explanation can lead from the claim to the inference. For example: I will buy flowers because it is my wife’s birthday and because she likes flowers. Either explanation can be used to explain why flowers will be bought. Joint explanations is where two or more explanations are used, jointly, to explain a claim. However, in this case, the joint explanations are not independent and if one of the explanations are false, then the claim falls. For example: I am going to get wet when leaving work because it is going to rain and I have no umbrella. Here if it doesn’t rain, or someone lends me an umbrella, then the claim falls and I shan’t get wet.

Inference
An inference is the conclusion to an argument and often contains an action point, it follows the logical steps of claim –> explanation –> inference. Often the inference sentence will start with “So…” or “Therefore…”, for example: There is a huge demand for thingummies in the US, because legislation has been passed requiring every citizen to carry a thingummy, therefore we should increase thingummy sales to the US in the coming quarter.

So now you have been furnished with the basic steps that you should run through when you see claims made as the result of your own, or other’s, data science. If the output is in the form of a claim (sales are up in the north west region), look for explanations that can support the claim and an inference that can help the business move forward.

Next time we’ll continue our exploration of critical thinking, until then, crunch those numbers! Smile

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  • Reynaldo Garretson

    9/30/2014 6:34:01 AM |

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    9/30/2014 6:39:37 AM |

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    9/30/2014 7:56:20 AM |

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  • Fallon Schuck

    9/30/2014 8:20:59 AM |

    Danke, aber ich muss sagen, dass es ein paar Dinge, die ich weiß nicht stimme. Dank

  • Lucio Opie

    9/30/2014 8:41:45 AM |

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    9/30/2014 8:55:01 AM |

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    9/30/2014 9:03:03 AM |

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  • Dominic Ferraiz

    9/30/2014 10:36:48 AM |

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    9/30/2014 12:01:39 PM |

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    9/30/2014 2:00:23 PM |

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    10/3/2014 11:52:03 AM |

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  • Brian Southwood

    10/6/2014 8:08:52 PM |

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    10/6/2014 8:27:50 PM |

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  • Brad Morganti

    10/6/2014 10:41:26 PM |

    Nicht ein schwieriges Thema an sich, sondern das ist recht komplex und verwirrend. Ich bin froh, dass Sie es so schön in Ihrer Arbeit hier dargestellt.

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    10/6/2014 10:51:43 PM |

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  • Cleveland Vakil

    10/7/2014 12:31:00 AM |

    Im nuovo al sito e ha deciso di iscriversi ad un forum tecnico, perché im perdere il mio contatto con la tecnologia dal finissaggio mio apprendistato in IT. Fondamentalmente ho fatto un apprendistato IT a partire da settembre 2011 e la finitura aprile 2012, ma sono stato disoccupato da allora e attualmente in cerca di lavoro. Ive stato pigro e tuttavia perso il contatto con un sacco di conoscenze che avevo acquisito in apprendistato, così ho deciso di iniziare a utilizzare di nuovo forum, ha funzionato con hobby precedenti, come la fotografia, la scrittura, il disegno e la progettazione grafica così ho pensato che dovrebbe aiutare con il mio computer nuovo lmao.

  • Venita Keavney

    10/7/2014 1:08:52 AM |

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  • Marylin Mirisola

    10/7/2014 2:26:34 AM |

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  • Barrett Gallaspy

    10/7/2014 2:32:47 AM |

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    10/7/2014 4:24:38 AM |

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  • Jeanice Papp

    10/7/2014 4:31:16 AM |

    "" Het is altijd goed om tips zoals je aandeel te leren voor blog posting. Zoals ik net begonnen met het plaatsen van reacties voor de blog en geconfronteerd met problemen van veel afwijzingen. Ik denk dat uw suggestie nuttig zou zijn voor mij. Ik zal u laten weten of haar werk voor ik ook. "

  • Jeanett Ketcherside

    10/7/2014 4:38:42 AM |

    J'ai appris beaucouop de scelto sur ce sujet grazia à vous.

  • Inga Can

    10/7/2014 5:12:04 AM |

    Im new to the site and decided to sign up to a tech forum because im losing my touch with technology since finishing my apprenticeship in IT. Basically i did an IT apprenticeship starting in september 2011 and finishing april 2012, but have been unemployed ever since and currently looking for work. Ive been lazy however and lost touch with alot of the knowledge i had gained on the apprenticeship, so i have decided to start using forums again, it worked with previous hobbies such as photography, writing, drawing and graphics design so i thought it should help with my computing again lmao.

  • Coleen Hanisch

    10/7/2014 5:12:59 AM |

    Vous êtes si bon. Im là avec vous. Votre blog est certainement intéressant à lire si quelqu'un vient à travers elle. Im heureux que j'ai fait parce que maintenant Ive a reçu une toute nouvelle vision de cela. Je ne savais pas que cette question était si importante et si universelle. Vous avez certainement mettre les choses en perspective pour moi.

  • Palmer Hoey

    10/7/2014 6:12:24 AM |

        I am also in exactly the same situation and it was a relief to find someone with similar experiences.

  • Todd Moschella

    10/7/2014 7:05:27 AM |

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  • Catarina Weisenberg

    10/7/2014 8:09:11 AM |

    Deze blog is zeer informatica, helder en duidelijk. Hier alles is beschreven in een systematische manier, zodat lezer maximale informatie kon krijgen en leren veel dingen. Dit is een van de beste blogs die ik heb gelezen.

  • Willy Arnaldo

    10/7/2014 10:59:00 AM |

    Hi Everybody, i am Jason and i am new too. This subject interest me a lot and i would be glad if you permit me to contrinute to this posting.

  • Tequila Elfstrom

    10/7/2014 12:11:37 PM |

    Hallo Moderator, würde Ich mag zu diesem Thema beitragen. Kann ich dies tun? Ich bevorzuge es, so wie sie in einem anderen Forum i einen schönen Beitrag geleistet, aber der Moderator chosed es mäßig aus.

  • Tien Mayou

    10/7/2014 1:09:37 PM |

    Pourquoi favorisez-vous pas le contrôle des naissances et la réduction de la population de l'Afrique au lieu d'être enroulé sur zèbres?

  • Anton Fusner

    10/7/2014 1:52:40 PM |

    Muy informativo, pero creo que hay algunas cosas que necesitan un poco de precisión. si me lo permiten, me puedes subir aquí algo de información.

  • Mohammed Wisseman

    10/7/2014 1:56:55 PM |

    questa è una cosa che non ho mai un'analisi dettagliata mai read.very.

  • Ardelia Mozier

    10/7/2014 2:01:05 PM |

    Hallo zusammen, ich hoffe, gute Zeit mit Ihnen

  • Lavelle Wyers

    10/7/2014 2:10:36 PM |

    Penso che sia il fattore di anonimato. Un lettore normale si sente come una parte di una comunità, e quindi, anche se non sono d'accordo, sarebbero più inclini a farlo civilmente.

  • Charline Lamorella

    10/7/2014 2:39:21 PM |

    Hola a todos, por favor ayúdame Comenzar un nuevo hilo con un tema relacionado.

  • Rory Garr

    10/7/2014 3:24:14 PM |

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    10/7/2014 3:51:33 PM |

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